Dates covered in this report: April 1, 2024 to mi-July 2024
There are those events that live in the collective memory and are punctuated with some version of “Where were you when X happened?” or “I remember exactly what I was doing when X happened.”
Gen X remember the Berlin Wall coming down, The Miracle on Ice, Challenger, Princess Diana’s death and they can tell you exactly what they were doing when they heard the news. In a time before social media where news did not travel at the speed of push notifications or social post these, and other events have distinct placeholders in our collective memory.
President Bidens decision to not seek the reelection is unprecedented. It’s not that others have not chosen to run:
1968 Lyndon B. Johnson, 36th president of the United States, chose not to run for reelection after single term due to his low popularity. He served as Vice President under John F. Kennedy from 1961 – 1963 and became president after JFK was assassinated.
Harry Truman, 33rd president of the United States, chose not to seek re-election probably due his 22% job approval rating.
1928 Calvin Coolidge, 30th president of the United States, announced he would not run after his first full term would end. He had acceded to the presidency when Warren G. Harding died while in office.
1904 Theodore Roosevelt, 26th president of the United States, announced he would not be running for president just soon after he was elected and despite his popularity kept his word and put his support behind William Howard Taft.
June 27, 2024 – President Joe Biden’s debate performance sparked calls for him to leave the race. For 25 days the president tried to reassure his party and the American people that he was fit to run.
With the assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump on July 13th the calls for Biden to step aside accelerated. The culmination of which now sees Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. Within 24 hours the announcement she raised a staggering $84M for her campaign. To add to that, Vice President Harris leads Trump by 2% in polling reported by Reuters on July 23rd.
President Biden yielded to pressure with less than four months left in the campaign process. Unprecedented.
What happened after that shows just how quickly a party can and will mobilize and rally behind a candidate.
Post Announcement
Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race quickly sent both parties on the offensive to make this historic announcement work to their advantage.
- Democrats earned nearly 4 M social posts around these themes:
-Praised President’s Biden’s legacy
-Hailed his decision to step aside
-Rallied around Vice President Kamala Harris - Republicans earned nearly 3.5 M social posts around these themes:
-Urging President Biden to resign outright
-Criticized Biden’s legacy on immigration and inflation
-Suggested Harris lied about Biden’s mental capacity
-Painted Harris as soft on border security
Share of voice
Q2 2024 Overview
In this social media report, we analyze Q2 conversations. However, we are integrating elements from mid-July, given the exceptional events that took place.
During the specified period, there were more than 2.89 million online mentions relating to ‘US elections’, ‘Republicans’ and ‘Democrats’. This is a significant decrease (-14%) compared to the first quarter of 2024 (3.36 million mentions).
When all the conversations about each Republican, Democrat, Green, Libertarian, and Independent candidate are aggregated, the volume of conversations is 8.2 million mentions, down 19% compared to Q1 24. The absence of big events like in Q1 (Super Tuesday, Biden’s State of the Union address, Border crisis…) are the main reasons for the drop in social conversations in Q2.
However in July the conversation about elections and candidates increased by 202% compared with June due to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on 13 July and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee from 15 to 18 July.
As in Q1 2024, the ‘Democrats’ received more discussions than the ‘Republicans’ during Q2, mainly due President Biden. Key topics driving these conversations include Taxes, Border Control and Immigration, Israel/Hamas conflict, Abortion, Healthcare, Economy, Taxes and Age of Candidates. All these subjects were also discussed in the many comments about the TV debate on 27 June.
The topics are different for conversations about the ‘Republicans’: there’s more talk about taxes and immigration, and much less about abortion. But above all, the subject of Trump’s criminal hush money case and its verdict is very present in conversations about Trump. The subject of Israel Hamas continues to generate tense conversations on both sides, surpassing on social media the volume devoted to Biden’s poor performance during the debate.
Social Media Posts by Political Party
The topics that grew the most in terms of share of voice on social media compared to Q1 2024 are Tax (+2.7%), Abortion (+2.3%), Trump indictment (+2.9%), the Age of the 2 main candidates (+2%). By contrast, the Border Control topic, which grew strongly in Q1 24, is down: -7%.
The topics discussed first in terms of volume remain immigration and Israel, then the appearance in 3rd place of the subject of Taxes.
In The three main peaks of conversations about the Presidential Election in Q2 24 have to do with:
- May 9: Mixed reactions to President Biden’s decision to withhold certain weapons from Israel if it attacks Rafah in Gaza strip. Republicans accused Biden of favoring a “Hamas victory over Israel”.
- May 30: Donald Trump has been convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal that threatened his ascent to the White House in 2016.
- June 27-28: President Joe Biden’s allies scrambled to contain the fallout from his poor performance in the first U.S. presidential debate of 2024. NY Times calls on Biden to drop out of 2024 presidential race. But poll shows most Democrats think Biden should keep running.
In July, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, significantly increased mentions of the elections on social media, producing a peak unseen since the start of the campaign.
Q2 24 + mid-July Timeline Highlights
Which conversations have the greatest number of mentions and comments?
During the Q2 period, more than 5.3M online mentions relate to the different presidential candidates, including more than 3.5 million for Democratic candidates and 1.5 million for Republican candidates. However, this is down significantly on Q1 24. This is due to fewer events that took place in Q1, such as Biden’s State of the Union address, Super Tuesday, Border crisis or Supreme Court rulings. In addition, the number of Republican candidates has fallen sharply, with conversations focusing more on Trump and Biden alone.
On the contrary, Independent, Libertarian, and Green candidates have strongly increased their shares of voice compared to Q1 24.
Discussions about Democratic candidates decreased by 22% compared to Q1 2024. More than 99% of discussions about Democratic candidates are about Joe Biden. He receives many mentions as President but since March 8 (State of the Union address), he has been commented on as a candidate. He is distantly followed by Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson (withdrew from the race on June 11).
Conversation Trend for Joe Biden. April-Mid-July
During this Q2 2024, the timeline of conversations about Joe Biden on social media is dominated by immigration policy and foreign affairs.
On immigration policy, on June 4, the White House announced that President Biden believes “we must secure our border in line with our laws and values”. He is announcing new executive actions to bar migrants who cross our Southern border unlawfully from receiving asylum.Tensions are so high around the Israel-Hamas conflict that every decision Biden makes in this area is widely commented on, whether positively or negatively. For example, Biden’s decisions on April 5 and May 9 concerning the Gaza Strip received more mentions than his poor performance at the debate, and the doubts about whether he would remain in the race.
Another foreign affairs topic, Ukraine and the congressional vote on aid, also provoked a spike in discussion on April 22.
In addition, during Q2, candidate Biden spoke out several times on the subject of abortion. By upholding a near-total ban on abortion on April 9, the Arizona Supreme Court has rekindled the abortion debate. The Biden administration announced that it has expanded HIPAA protection to shield medical records for women seeking abortion care from state law enforcement officials seeking to prosecute people.
From 27 June onwards, conversations focused on the President’s age and cognitive faculties, because he continued to mix up people’s names at his press conferences. On July 12, Joe Biden condemns the failed assassination attempt on Trump during a live televised speech and resumes his campaign on the 16th. when he accuses Trump of “lying like hell”.
Third party or independent candidates
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains the Independent candidate who collects the most mentions (with a share of voice of 53%). However, it is lower than in Q1 2024, due to the strong increase in share of voice for the Green candidate Jill Stein. She is now well ahead of Cornel West by progressing by more than 160% compared to Q1 24. Chase Oliver remains at a low rate of mentions on social media. Nevertheless, all these candidates have progressed compared to the first quarter of 2024, taking advantage of the withdrawal of all Republican candidates against Trump in Q1 as well as Democrat Marianne Williamson in June.
As in previous quarters, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. concentrates conversation peaks and ensures a certain virality on social media by choosing controversial and sensitive subjects, even bizarre ones (the worm). He also has creative ideas for dealing with the two major candidates, such as his own “real debate” during the Trump-Biden debate.
Republican Candidates
With 1.91M mentions in Q2, the volume of discussions on social media on Republican candidates increased slightly (2%) compared to Q1 2024.. Donald Trump alone has almost 93% of share of voice on social media, an increase of 20 points. In fact, it’s Donald Trump’s criminal cases that are doing most of the talking about the White House candidate in Q2 24:
–Trump’s classified documents trial in Florida indefinitely postponed (May 8.)
-Donald Trump became the first former U.S. president to face a criminal trial (Apr 15.)
-Donald Trump has been convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal that threatened his ascent to the White House in 2016 (May 30)
In July, mentions of Donald Trump increased by 202% with two events: His attempted assassination at the rally in Pennsylvania on 13 July and the RNC in Milwaukee from 15 to 18 July.
Former Republican Candidates
Timelines
All the Republican candidates have withdrawn from the race against Donald Trump since Q1, but some continue to speak out or make news. In particular, contest for Trump vice president spotlighted former candidates on social media. Most support Trump, with the exception of former VP Mike Pence.
Nikki Haley says she will vote for rival Trump after staying silent for months (May 22)
Doug Burgum’s share of voice has risen sharply (118%): Like Tim Scott, he’s seen as rising in the ranks to be Trump’s VP.
Former vice president Mike Pence, is calling Trump’s latest statement on his abortion policies “a slap in the face to the millions of pro-life Americans who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 (Apr. 9)
Tim Scott is launching a multimillion dollar effort to recruit Black voters to support Republicans in 2024. (Jun. 6)
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told donors he would help raise money for former presidential rival Donald Trump (April 10)
In July, during the RNC, 2 prominent primary challengers Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley urged the party to unite behind its official nominee Donald Trump.
Key Political issues
What are the key political issues being discussed about Presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump in Q2?
What sets Trump vs. Biden apart:
- Trump’s judicial affairs are very present in the top 15 through the topic “Trump indictment“. This is the biggest change from Q1. Trump’s criminal hush money case has been much commented on and used by Democratic supporters.
- Another difference is still with “Media Ethics” in 7th position as in Q1. The data continues to show, as in Q1, the multiple attacks by Donald Trump’s supporters on the media and the alleged misinformation about their candidate. On the other hand, the media are doing their fact-checking, pointing out the many false statements made by Trump, particularly during the June 27 debate.
- Tax: this is a topic shared by the 2 candidates, now in the top 5, so it’s a big step up from Q1, when it was mentioned less. Lowering taxes for Trump’s rich friends was an attack by the Democrats that was widely taken up on social media.
- Israel/Hamas, China, Ukraine, Foreign Affairs: all these topics are much more commented on in relation to Joe Biden’s stances as a result of his actions as President (aid for Israel and Ukraine, taxation of Chinese products).
- Abortion rights are the other major difference between the two candidates: in 9th position for Joe Biden, who has made many speeches on the subject, but only in 17th position for Trump, who defers abortion decisions to the states.
In July, two news items in particular boosted the number of mentions about the White House candidates:
1. Donald Trump’s assassination attempt:
As soon as the shooting was announced at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, social media mentions soared, reaching a 202% increase in 24 hours compared to the previous month, and a record 25 million mentions in 3 days worldwide.
The most published messages were divided into 4 topics:
- the shooting and wounding of Donald Trump
- the alleged errors and failings of the Secret Service
- the identity of the shooter
- and countless misinformation and conspiracy theories: Online posts falsely claim sharpshooter was told not to fire on suspect in Trump shooting, Posts baselessly claim the shooting was staged to benefit Trump politically, False claims that the assassination attempt was ordered by President Biden or other members of the “deep state”, Photos that misidentify the alleged shooter.
2. The 4-day Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
Here are the most talked-about facts about RNC on social media:
Day 1:
- 135K mentions: Donald Trump make his first public appearance since the assassination attempt sporting a bandage on his ear.
- 87K: Trump becomes the official Republican presidential nominee
- 283K: Trump chooses Sen. J.D. Vance, a former critic, as his vice-presidential running mate
Day 2:
- 60K: The second night focus on crime and immigration
Donald Trump is feted by his former rivals :
- 227K mentions: Nikki Haley calls for unity in speech endorsing Trump
- 93K: Ron DeSantis delivers a cutting speech calling for former President Trump’s reelection
Day 3:
- 232K: JD Vance delivers his first speech as VP pick: and introduced himself to a national audience
Day 4:
- 461K: Trump accepts Republican presidential nomination in a speech describing in detail the assassination attempt
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